Remember Simba Makoni’s MKD in 2008?
In February 2008 a few months before elections Simba Makoni walked out of ZANUPF seemingly to challenge Robert Mugabe in the election through his own political party Mavambo/Kusile Dawn (MKD). To put it into context, Simba Makoni announced his candidature 53 days before the election was to take place. This is hardly enough time to traverse the length and breadth of Zimbabwe to campaign and hope to win against Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai. The madness of the whole arrangement was that season campaigner Welshman Ncube decided not to run for election choosing to support the candidature of Simba Makoni, this was probably the stupidest decision I have seen made by the professor but as we shall see later, there is a method to the madness. Simba Makoni did run and got about 9% of the total votes. This was pivotal as if 4% of those votes had been given to Morgan Tsvangirai he would have become the president officially. Word has it that the long time taken to release results was because Mugabe had actually lost and Morgan had gotten at least 70% of the votes.
|Image Credit: Alliance for People's Agenda Facebook|
Enter the King Maker Trevor Ncube
Even though it seemed odd for Welshman Ncube to rally behind Simba Makoni there is a strong possibility that his hand was forced by Trevor Ncube. A few days after Simba Makoni threw his hat into the fray Trevor Ncube wrote a lengthy piece on his site Thought Leader that he would exercise his right to vote because Simba Makoni was an option. Trevor is a quiet man who is far from the madness but very much involved behind the scenes. His favoured position is being a puppet master pulling strings of political players. On his Thought Leader blog he has his followership who agreed with him that Simba Makoni is the best thing. Reading the comments one would be left in no doubt Simba Makoni would garner the highest opposition votes alas it was not to be. If Welshman Ncube appeared to adopt a tough stance for not working with MDCT it can be traced to the influence of Trevor Ncube who does not like anything about Morgan Tsvangirai. Whatever it is that Morgan did to Trevor it must be huge because he will abandon all objectivity when he is looking at the person of Tsvangirai.
Trevor’s “Third Way” and Nkosana Moyo
Trevor Ncube has long been mooting a third way to Zimbabwe politics, this is why he threw his weight behind Welshman Ncube and then Simba Makoni. His Third Way can be traced back to the Wikileaks cable of August 2007 where he revealed his disgust for ZANUPF and MDCT (you can read the full cable here). Interestingly it is in this cable that he revealed his choice for who should lead the opposition to unseat ZANUPF as follows:
1. Strive Masiyiwa
2. Nkosana Moyo
3. Simba Makoni
We know from history that the Simba Makoni card was played and it failed dismally so now Trevor is moving to the next option which happens to be Nkosana Moyo. You might remember in recent history Strive Masiyiwa’s name was thrown around that he would run for office. Knowing Strive Masiyiwa I knew this was utter hogwash but someone was feeding the news perhaps to nudge the businessman to run for office. But this is unthinkable akin to Tim Cook leaving Apple to run for US presidency. When it was seen that Strive Masiyiwa is not an option option number 2 had to be implemented. Up stepped Nkosana Moyo saying “Its Time, Sekuyisikhati, Inguva” launching his Alliance for People’s Agenda (APA) party. But whose agenda is he really serving? If the People means Trevor Ncube then he is right otherwise he is just another puppet on a string being pulled Rosebank’s Trevor Ncube offices. According to Trevor Ncube MDCT and ZANUPF are not an option to take Zimbabwe forward, so he will not rest and let Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDCT take a strong opposition into 2018 elections, so he is throwing his weight and wealth behind Nkosana Moyo.
The Rebuff of Coaliton Factor by Nkosana
Buoyed by the Gambian scenario where the long time president was unseated by a grand coalition of opposition forces, Zimbabweans on the ground have been nudging the opposition leaders to unite and fight the dictatorship of ZANUPF as one. Indeed the people are tired and any opposition leader worth his/her salt has been mindful of the sentiment on the ground that unite or else. But Nkosana Moyo appeared blind to this sentiment, immediately saying he does not see the need for a coalition. He has been at pains to explain his distancing from everyone saying “his view has not been articulated by any of the available parties”. This reason has been laughed off by the people and he will keep being nudged towards a coalition. If Nkosana Moyo had to be truthful he would simply come out and say his handler Trevor Ncube does not want to him coalesce under a possible leadership of Morgan Tsvangirai. Why would Trevor Ncube fund the getting of MDCT into power? It remains to be seen if Trevor will try to hijack the coalition and have it kick Morgan Tsvangirai to the curb. From what I see on social media Trevor Ncube has a lot of people active on social media to push his thoughts and opinions. Just do a survey of people who have APA or Nkosana Moyo as their profile picture, a sizeable number have visibly fake names a pointer that there is a social media team with multiple profiles working round the clock to influence opinion.
The Evan Mawarire Factor
You might be wondering how Evan Mawarire fits into the whole Nkosana Moyo puzzle, on his interview with Ruvheneko, Nkosana Moyo was asked “It is believed you were supposed to launch a party together with Dr. Shingi Munyeza, Pastor Evan Mawarire and Trevor Ncube, that you were supposed work together”? He refused that he was supposed to launch with them but agreed that he was talking to them on a consultative basis. Nkosana seemed caught unawares by this question if not discomfited. I remember the days Evan Mawarire left Zimbabwe and came to South Africa on his way to United States. When we met him we had a chat and bid him farewell, curiously I asked where he was staying and if we need to make contributions towards his upkeep, someone said Evan is well taken care of and Trevor Ncube is covering the expenses. I would not be surprised if Evan came and threw his weight behind Nkosana Moyo and perhaps that explains why he was not so comfortable to engage with MDCT. But I heard from the man himself that he is not interested in political office, I was concerned he might morph into another political party from #ThisFlag campaign. When Ruvheneko asked Nkosana I remembered the Evan Mawarire and Trevor Ncube link.
I am under no illusion that Nkosana Moyo is taking instructions from Trevor Ncube and he is the one behind him choosing to run for political office. Nkosana Moyo or grandbae as the young ladies like to call him is a nice person. But it remains to be seen how he will walk the fine line between ground sentiment for coalition and the desire by Trevor to steer clear of MDCT and Tsvangirai. His notion that he has a unique blueprint not articulated by any other opposition political party will be found out soon. He will have to think of another means to escape the calls for going with others or else it will just appear as his arrogance. Is it worthy to ruin a fine reputation to toe the line of Trevor Ncube? Nkosana has more time than Simba Makoni so it remains to be seen if he will force the two main candidates into another run-off election like in 2008. It will be a long road to 2018 elections with a lot of drama playing out. Whatever happens I hope people will do what is right to deliver a victory for the people, egos have to be levelled. It also imperative that the people do what is necessary to fund their struggle, waiting for the wealthy in our society can always land us in a ditch.